VTA optimistic on BART to San Jose VTA optimistic on BART to San Jose (September 23, 2005)

Board hashes out new sales tax measure to cover $4.7 billion project

By Jon Wiener

The Valley Transportation Authority board of directors is close to finalizing a sales tax measure to place before voters next year in order to pay to extend BART to San Jose.

Meeting for three and half hours last Friday, board members reached a consensus in favor of a quarter-cent tax that would expire in 30 years. The plan favored by the board would delay the $4.7 billion BART project -- originally intended to be completed by 2015 -- for three years in order to set aside money for maintenance of local roads and expressways.

"I think we're going to be ready for a November decision," said board chair Joe Pirzynski, a Los Gatos City Council member.

Just days after the workshop, the VTA released new ridership numbers indicating that the extension would be 33 percent more popular than previously thought.

VTA spokesman Jayme Kunz attributed the increases to a new model that measured usage in the year 2030 rather than 2025 and accounted for high-density development, which BART backers hope to build near stations along the line.

But opponents of the project viewed the ridership numbers -- a projected 110,000 people a day -- with skepticism, since those results rely on local cities building enough housing to meet requirements set by the Association of Bay Area Governments. The projection formula also depends on BART being as popular, relative to other forms of transportation, in the South Bay as it is in San Francisco and the East Bay.

"A lot of that improvement is from land uses that may never happen and higher density that may never come, as well as simply putting out the time horizon five more years," said Stuart Cohen, executive director of the Transportation and Land Use Coalition.

Cohen stressed that such ridership models were always a guess, and pointed to the example of the BART extension to San Francisco International Airport. In that case, the combination of low ridership and cost overruns has eliminated dollars for other transit projects that would have competed for the same money.

Kunz defended the assumptions behind the projections.

"It is very much in line with the city of Milpitas's urban plan and downtown San Jose's urban plan," said Kunz.

Laura Stuchinsky, transportation director for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group -- the coalition of businesses that continues to lead the campaign for BART to San Jose -- said VTA is using a better projection model than was used for the SFO extension and has a good track record of building projects on schedule and under budget.

"The fact that it's going to provide transit benefits for that many more thousands of people is significant," said Stuchinsky.

Both sides see the new numbers as an argument in their favor as they prepare for what is sure to a heated campaign. VTA is treading carefully in its efforts to craft a sales tax measure that will both pay for the extension and include enough other components to get the required two-thirds support from Santa Clara County voters.

Board members discussed three potential financial scenarios at a workshop last week, all based on voters approving a new quarter-cent sales tax. Mountain View and other cities from the northern part of the county had asked the pro-BART forces that dominate the VTA board to come up with an alternative plan in case a new tax fails to pass. The cities also asked the board to consider delaying the project an additional six years -- until 2021 -- in order to save money for expansion of bus and light rail service, Caltrain improvements and maintenance of local roads.

That was enough to win to support from a majority of board members, but not all policymakers.

"I would rather waste a lot of money after waiting three years than waste a lot of money immediately," said Mountain View City Council member Greg Perry, a member of the VTA's Policy Advisory Board and one of a handful of elected officials willing to publicly oppose the project. "It is still the most expensive conceivable way to solve that problem."

Pirzynski said the issue is whether the VTA can offer voters a way to make good on the promises contained in 2000's Measure A, which passed with over 70 percent of the vote. The measure also included money for expanded bus and light rail service, new light rail lines, a people mover at the SFO airport and Caltrain electrification.

"We want to really confirm that the primary project, the BART project, continues to be that which the public wants us to deliver," Pirzynski said.

E-mail Jon Wiener at jwiener@mv-voice.com

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