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By Sherry Listgarten

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About this blog: Climate change, despite its outsized impact on the planet, is still an abstract concept to many of us. That needs to change. My hope is that readers of this blog will develop a better understanding of how our climate is evolving a...  (More)

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Will the Coronavirus Save Lives?

Uploaded: Mar 22, 2020
I saw an eye-opening statistic the other day. Coronavirus to date has killed almost 15,000 people worldwide (as of March 22). It may be 2x or 3x that by the time you are reading this. In response there has been a precipitous decrease in travel and economic activity in order to reduce transmission of the virus. A side-effect of this has been much cleaner air over many industrial and populated areas. Stanford professor Marshall Burke recently estimated how many lives have been saved by the reduced particulate (PM 2.5) levels in China, using a study of the pre-Olympics air quality cleanup in Beijing to predict the impact on mortality. He estimates (conservatively, he says) that the improved air quality has saved 50,000 - 80,000 lives in China. Like I said, eye-opening.

I do not mean to say that the coronavirus is in any way a good thing. This pandemic has so many impacts, and Burke is the first to acknowledge that he looked at only one of them. Many of the other effects, such as worsened inequality and increased poverty, will have very negative consequences for global health. The coronavirus is devastating. But the degree to which the improved air quality may have reduced mortality does indicate to me, as Burke says, that “our normal way of doing things might need disrupting”. He observes: “the calculation is perhaps a useful reminder of the often-hidden health consequences of the status quo, i.e., the substantial costs that our current way of doing things exacts on our health and livelihoods.”

This raises the question of whether we should use this unprecedented economic disruption to put in place policies for a more sustainable and healthful future. Can we hang onto some of the good we are seeing while also remedying so much of the bad? Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, has something to say about that in this interview with Climate Home News. “This is a historic opportunity for the world to, on one hand, create packages to recover the economy, but on the other hand, to reduce dirty investments and accelerate the energy transition…. Here the issue is not only the level of money (dedicated to stimulate the economy) but the direction of the money.” As someone once said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”.

You may remember (or not!) that we are in the middle of a series on flying, so I thought I would focus on the proposed economic recovery package for airlines. US airlines are looking at a steep dropoff in flights, with many airports expecting reductions of 50% or more in passenger traffic over the next few months, and a 2020 forecast of a 20-30% drop for the year, globally. This has led them to ask for financial help from the government (i.e., from public funds). A whole slew of questions are being raised about this. Are airlines really so essential to the average American that they need a publicly-funded bailout? Should public funds go to the airlines or directly to the workers? Should any help we give to airlines have constraints on how the funds are used or how airlines operate in the future? (1)

The proposal from the Trump administration is $50 billion in secured loans (loans that the airlines will need to pay back) and at least one string attached, namely “limits on increases in executive compensation until repayment of the loans”. The question I have is, should we be asking more from the airlines, and in particular should we use this opportunity to direct them to more sustainable practices? Sheldon Whitehouse, a senator from Rhode Island, reasons: “Airlines that want public support should live public values,” and has issued a letter with seven other senators asking for more guarantees that airlines become cleaner. The auto bailout in 2008 did something similar, coupling the discounted loans with increased fuel efficiency requirements (35.5 mpg by 2016), resulting in many more efficient vehicles in the following years. Is a similar requirement appropriate this time around with the airlines?

The pandemic is revealing many of the structural problems with America today, such as a lack of health insurance and paid sick leave, and widespread income inequality coupled with inadequate safety nets. At the same time, it is also revealing the cost of devaluing scientific expertise, defunding science, and valuing short-term gains over long-term stability, putting our future health and safety at risk. As we shock our economy to try to save it, can we design the shocks to remedy some of these problems for the future, as opposed to just fixing the immediate, severe issues right in front of us? I hope so. If nothing else, our experience with coronavirus has helped us understand that new directions will help us save lives.

Notes and References
1. It is relevant to note that the “big four” US airlines (United, American, Delta, and Southwest) have been very profitable over the last decade, but according to this article and others, they used much of the profit for stock buybacks, which primarily benefit shareholders (including executives) and investors.

Current Climate Data (February 2020)
Global impacts, US impacts, CO2 metric, Climate dashboard (updated annually)

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Comments

 +   14 people like this
Posted by TimR, a resident of Downtown North,
on Mar 22, 2020 at 9:03 am

With every new plane Boeing introduces, fuel efficiency gets better. But those new planes cost more money, and bankrupt airlines won't be able to afford many of them. I guess maybe any bailout could require the purchase of new aircraft and the retirement of old aircraft, which would also help out Boeing. And maybe require them to buy from Boeing to help out workers in America. But beyond that, there's not a lot that can be done, or done overnight. Air travel spews out a lot of C02, and will for some time.


 +   21 people like this
Posted by Trump fired the national pandemic team, a resident of Greenmeadow,
on Mar 22, 2020 at 11:36 am

a couple things: Not only limit exec comp for the bailouts, but REDUCE IT. Ten million dollar annual packages are absurd. Will CEO's make worse decisions, or work less hard (!) for a million a year? Give it to low wage workers.

Also: terms should include the company's inability to ever do stock buybacks - which artificially pump up stock prices. See the evidence from the Trump corporate tax cuts. We added trillions in debt over ten years just to temporarily pump up prices, all which crashed in the Trump Bear Market.

So we got literally nothing for trillions. Nice math. Great job.

Last: all those 'empty' planes are not empty. Their bellies are STUFFED with time sensitive cargo.

Thanks, Sherry, for a compelling column.


 +   17 people like this
Posted by Judy, a resident of Menlo Park,
on Mar 22, 2020 at 12:00 pm

In addition to air pollution we're (including animals) also benefiting from reduced noise pollution. I have heard many people remark that they've noticed the birds singing for the first time. For once their singing is not overpowered by the almost constant noise of cars and airplanes. I wish the noisy gas powdered mowers/blowers would also cease.

Last night when I was taking a walk I swear the stars looked brighter than they usually do, probably because fewer airplanes are polluting the sky. And the air also seems so much cleaner, almost like living in the mountains. Diminished air/noise pollution is definitely a favorable outcome of the pandemic.

Sadly this administration doesn't seem to be concerned about our environment. Economic recovery will be the number one concern, and if anything, I predict EPA regulations will be loosened.


 +   23 people like this
Posted by Trump fired the national pandemic team, a resident of Evergreen Park,
on Mar 22, 2020 at 12:56 pm

> Sadly this administration doesn't seem to be concerned about our environment. Economic recovery will be the number one concern...


Actually a good argument for the stimulus and heath effects of implementing a GND.

We're going to spend the money anyway - let's build sustainable infrastructure that:
- employs Americans
- we have to eventually build, so why not when we can borrow the money at near 0%
- is sustainable
- pays for itself over time

And, oh yeah, saves the planet. Bonus!!!

Let's start with panels on what *we* own - every public building and public parking lot. Storage will catch up. Add in rebates for every private roof. Employ! Build! Save!

Roosevelt proved it with the First Republican Great Depression; Obama attempted it (but was blocked by the GOP, which severely hindered the Obama Recovery) trying to get out of the Bush Great Recession - that we have to employ and build our way out of the Trump Depression.

Build! Go Big!


 +   19 people like this
Posted by Staying Young Through Kids, a resident of Old Palo Alto,
on Mar 22, 2020 at 8:45 pm

Staying Young Through Kids is a registered user.

I was remarking to my wife today that when I moved here in the 1990's the traffic on both Embarcadero and Alma were about like what I've seen over the last week. Sure that's a LOT less CO2, but it also a huge increase in quality of life.

So...It's not just the amount of days in your life, but the amount of life in your days.

Let me say without qualification, it is truly horrifying the impact this virus is having on many local and regional workers (especially hourly employees). I hope we are all supporting them in whatever ways we can.

To me, the energy of Palo Alto and the sense of hurry to get ahead feels much healthier right now. Ironic given the urgency of the health crisis. And, this is URGENT!


 +   17 people like this
Posted by Anneke, a resident of Professorville,
on Mar 23, 2020 at 10:13 am

1. The air above China is already much cleaner. Pictures from space show it.
2. The water in the canals in Venice now picture fish and a dolphin, because the quality of the water is so much better.
3. Since traffic in the US is already much less and will continue to decrease in this crisis time, traffic fatalities will be much less, plus it will help clean our air as well.
4. I would like to see the US taking back the manufacturing of essential goods, such as medicines. I understand that at present 90% of medicines is produced in China. Taking back these goods would provide much more political safety and much needed jobs in our own country.
5. COVID-19 does not discriminate, so all of us ( and many do) need to adhere to the guidelines of sheltering and distancing.
6. When we walk early in the morning with our dog, Katie Woof, the few people we see are all kind and thoughtful. This morning my husband gave a driving-by police officer a salute. Let's all do that when we see policemen. They are critical in maintaining the safety of our city and the safety of us.
7. We will come out of this, and I have the hope that once we do, we will live in a safer, more thoughtful, more caring and kinder world.


 +   16 people like this
Posted by MP Resident, a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown,
on Mar 23, 2020 at 12:48 pm

This is the environmentalist version of disaster capitalism.

Millions of people lost their livelihoods, hundreds of thousands or millions of businesses will shutter, the long term economic effects will be felt for years - but that's all okay because you got a temporarily improvement in air pollution?

How about we start with some reality based changes like banning reusable bags from stores.


 +   11 people like this
Posted by Sherry Listgarten, a Mountain View Online blogger,
on Mar 23, 2020 at 7:50 pm

Sherry Listgarten is a registered user.

Great comments! And I hope everyone is staying well and not going stir-crazy…

@Tim: One thing to keep in mind is that there are plenty of ways for airlines to reduce their warming impact without buying new planes. There are routing changes, for example, that would reduce the impact of contrails. There are biofuels. And there are effective offset programs. (Though to be fair, the best thing would be for people to stop flying first-class and business class, and to fly less, all of which will cost the airlines.) It just seems weird that we are using public funds to prop up an increasingly polluting industry.

@Judy: “I predict EPA regulations will be loosened”. I’d bet on that as well. A friend of mine pointed me to this article saying the same thing :(

@Trump: Yeah, I’m pretty sure if we put our mind to it, we could do two things at once (economy + sustainability). And we need to.

@Anneke: I like your #7, but am not sure if the American culture allows for that, or if it will be a race to see who the winners and losers are from the economic turmoil. And the planet has no lobbyists.


 +   16 people like this
Posted by Nobody Cares About Pronouns Now, a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown,
on Mar 23, 2020 at 9:12 pm

Sherry: Grateful for your point of view, though I don't always agree with you. I'm appreciative of the local reporting. Keep up the good work.

I'm glad to see local grocery stores are prohibiting the use of those germ-infested re-usable bags.


 +   16 people like this
Posted by Sophie88, a resident of another community,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 7:59 am

With Coronavirus outbreak in China since December , many factories have been closed, many industrial activities have been suspended, few cars have been on the road, people have been staying at home for more than 2 months. Now most of US businesses have bee suspended too. This certainly reduced carbon emission greatly. Global wide, international travels have been down to minimum, freight are reduced at least 1/3, which also reduce carbon emission greatly. Ironically, this incident actually has favorable impact on climate change.


 +   14 people like this
Posted by Anon, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 1:41 pm

Posted by MP Resident, a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown,, on Mar 23, 2020 at 12:48 pm

>> This is the environmentalist version of disaster capitalism.

>> Millions of people lost their livelihoods, hundreds of thousands or millions of businesses will shutter, the long term economic effects will be felt for years - but that's all okay because you got a temporarily improvement in air pollution?

MP Resident: Sorry, but, there is no "nice" way to say this, so, I will have to be direct.

You completely, totally, missed the point. Go back and read everything, 100 times if that is what it takes, until you actually understand what has been said. It actually is quite important. I have no doubt of your good intentions-- you really need to understand this!


 +   11 people like this
Posted by Perspective, a resident of Monta Loma,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 2:30 pm

Sherri, I'd like to know your thoughts on this.

Web Link


 +   10 people like this
Posted by Sherry Listgarten, a Mountain View Online blogger,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 2:49 pm

Sherry Listgarten is a registered user.

@Sophie88: I think people generally agree that when the economy goes south, emissions do as well. Some people then go on to infer that if we are going to reduce our emissions, our economy will have to go south. That's not a fair conclusion, but the extremely unfortunate events of today do nothing to make the counter-argument (that we can have a good economy with low emissions).

@Nobody: Can you clarify, which reusable bags (germ-infested or not) are being banned in which local grocery stores?

@Perspective: It would be useful if you would summarize the point being made (that you presumably agree with) rather than just including a link to a long video. I will note that, per this source, The Texas Public Policy Foundation is a conservative think tank based in Austin, Texas that is listed as a “partner organization” in the Charles Koch Institute‘s Liberty@Work program. "The TPPF has received at least $1.1 million from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation and nearly $5 million from Donors Capital Fund and DonorsTrust." So they are very likely going to argue for taxpayer-funded bailouts with no strings attached. You can find more about their stance on climate change here. For example, they are quoted as saying in 2018: "“Finally, perhaps most importantly, there is little to no evidence that there is a need to reduce carbon emissions in this country." So I'm not inclined to spend a lot of time watching that video, but I will watch parts that you want to highlight.


 +   11 people like this
Posted by Perspective, a resident of Mountain View,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 4:44 pm

Dr. Scott Tinker is an expert in geology and energy resourcing. He has travelled the world and seen the impact energy, and lack of, affects societies and development. He has been quoted by NYT, NPR and WSJ.

This video presents FACTS in a fairly non-partisan, scientifically-based exploration of the global energy transition, the future of global energy production, and global energy demand.

I took the time and watched the entire video. I urge you to do the same, you might just learn something and come away with hope. It is not a request for tax payer bailout (where did that even enter the conversation other than you interjecting a very judgemental statement). It's a presentation of FACT on how much we need energy and how it can actually REDUCE carbon emissions.


 +   9 people like this
Posted by Sherry Listgarten, a Mountain View Online blogger,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 6:03 pm

Sherry Listgarten is a registered user.

@Perspective: Thanks for the reply. I don't see any recent citations for Tinker on the sites you mention (NYT, NPR, and WSJ are all from 2012-2013, about the documentary Switch). I do see him recently on sites like this one, which you can read about. That doesn't mean Tinker is a bad guy, and I'm sure he knows a lot about geology and fossil fuels and energy. But I do try to look for reputable citations of work, etc, before deciding how much time to invest in understanding someone's views. FWIW, the mention of bailouts was to tie your video back to the subject of this post. I try to keep comments relevant. I assumed the video had something to do with the topic of this post, though you didn't specify. I guess I was wrong :) Anyway, thanks for the reference, I'll see if I can watch at least part of it.


 +   20 people like this
Posted by Jetman, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood,
on Mar 24, 2020 at 10:55 pm

This is the second time in as many decades that we have seen the airline industry play a central role in the collapse of the global economy.

On September 11, 2001 we watched as terrorists were allowed to pass through lax airport/airline security to commandeer airliners and fly them into the World Trade Center buildings in New York.

Over the last few weeks we have watched as lax airport/airline public health precautions allowed COVID-19 to spread to over 175 countries and all 50 of the United States. We now see clusters of COVID-19 cases around the U.S. cities with the busiest airports.

Meanwhile, domestic air travel continues to spread COVID-19 around the U.S. Only Hawaii's governor David Ige has taken concrete steps to stem travel related transmission of COVID-19 by instituting a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all travelers to the state. Ige said "With the majority of Hawaii's COVID-19 cases linked to travel, it is critical that we further mitigate the spread of the virus by both residents and visitors who are coming from out-of-state". Ige's order applies to all arrivals at Hawaii's airports from the U.S. and international destinations and includes other private and commercial aircraft.

"Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count"
New York Times ~ March 24, 2020 Web Link

"Hawaii to quarantine all arrivals to the state for 14 days"
Associated Press ~ March 21, 2020 Web Link


 +   16 people like this
Posted by CrescentParkAnon., a resident of Crescent Park,
on Mar 25, 2020 at 3:10 am

"Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count"
New York Times ~ March 24, 2020: Web Link

WOW, that graph curve is scary, makes me wish I had already got it and hoped for the best. It is going to be rough very soon for future cases unless the government can get off it's butt and moving on the masks, ventilators, etc.

And Trump talks about opening the country and the cure being worse than the disease. He is not helping anything. I'd be a lot more confident if we had Andrew Cuomo in the White House and Trump back in Trump Tower.

Looking at this combined with global warming makes a pretty good case for not shuffling millions of people all over the world with who knows what germs along with them, and this does not even consider the unmanaged flights of private planes that often do not even have to register a flight plan or get passports stamped.

WE need to start thinking about how to design an "antifragile" society were all these converging negatives can be handled without disastrous consequences. We need a better way to organize things than catastrophically waiting for profit opportunities while things fall apart.


 +   15 people like this
Posted by Trump fired the national pandemic team, a resident of Evergreen Park,
on Mar 25, 2020 at 9:27 am

Airlines are a microcosm of unregulated capitalism.

"Airlines are begging for a bailout, but they've used 96% of their cash flow on buybacks over the past 10 years. It highlights an ongoing controversy over how companies have been spending their money."

Web Link

We're going to hand over at least $50 billion to these guys...
* But critics are deriding it as a bailout to an industry that made bad financial decisions.
* Resistance to the plan emerged among Democrats and even some Republicans. They're concerned that extra money will go straight to share buybacks, as they have in the past.
* Their pushback is reminiscent of past criticisms relating to how companies have spent excess capital.

It's gotten to the point where crooks don't even bother with masks when they rob ya. Noattempt to hide it.


 +   20 people like this
Posted by Nobody Cares About Pronouns, a resident of Menlo Park,
on Mar 25, 2020 at 6:24 pm

Sherry: grocery stores in Woodside and Portola Valley have banned reusable bags. They don't want the bag's germs on their counters or in their stores They are encouraging the use of paper and plastic bags. I hope they keep the ban of the filthy, unsanitary reusable bags in grocery stores.

Today, the governor of Massachusetts banned them as well.
Web Link#

Keep up the good work!


 +   9 people like this
Posted by Nobody Cares About Pronoun, a resident of Menlo Park,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 7:06 am

[Post removed, off-topic]


 +   7 people like this
Posted by Sherry Listgarten, a Mountain View Online blogger,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 8:37 am

Sherry Listgarten is a registered user.

@Nobody, thanks, I think this whole fight against reusables is an interesting topic. I'll do a post on it at some point.


 +   9 people like this
Posted by Nobody Cares About Pronouns, a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 11:35 am

Sherry: for your research:
Interesting Boston Herald story today:
“Plastic Ban Hypocrisy is in the Bag for the Woke Left."
Web Link


 +   8 people like this
Posted by Trump fired the national pandemic team, a resident of Evergreen Park,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:04 pm

> Interesting Boston Herald story

It's an op-ed, not a 'story'.

Our cloth bag (handmade, of old re-purposed material bound for the trash, also tossed in the washer once in a while) is not spreading the virus. The virus can't live on cloth for a week. That bag stays in the trunk for a week or more between uses these days.

Every year: my bag or 50+ plastic bags? Easy choice.

However, the oil/plastics industry appreciates your efforts. Ocean life? Not so much.


 +   5 people like this
Posted by Sherry Listgarten, a Mountain View Online blogger,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:24 pm

Sherry Listgarten is a registered user.

@Nobody: Well, on the off-chance you read the boilerplate in my blog posts, you'll see in my guidelines that I ask people not only to stay on topic but also to stay fact-based and refer to reputable sources. I stay away from basing the posts on op-eds. I do think Michael Graham is an effective representative for a sizable school of thought in the US, though, so appreciate the pointer. And thanks as well for keeping the discussion productive.

@Trump: I think the concern is for the people bagging groceries, if they are not wearing gloves. This writeup suggests that people offer to bag their own groceries to reduce cross-touching. (Bags are one potential source of cross-contamination, but all of the groceries are as well. And the carts and baskets. And ...)


 +   5 people like this
Posted by CrescentParkAnon., a resident of Crescent Park,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:45 pm

Sherry Listgarten, good point about op-eds, especially op-eds of the variety that bring up some issue or point, and then pin all the negatives on the Left, often using insulting names. Whenever did that become acceptable, and why in and around Palo Alto Online does it not get censored like other things do? I never understand the logic of that except to insult people, divide people and make everyone mad and argumentative. Other than that, someone might have a decent enough idea or take on things.


 +   8 people like this
Posted by Nobody Cares About Pronouns, a resident of Menlo Park,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:49 pm

Sherry:

I especially love the plastic bags that grocery stores provide for fruit and vegetables.

Each one tends to get three or four uses in my household: several times for sandwiches, and then for dog poop.

Check out (Google) John Tierney, now former but a longtime Science writer for he New York Times. He's also an advocate for plastic bags, and has been a decade-long critic of the reusable ones because of their E. coli dangers.


 +   7 people like this
Posted by Trump fired the national pandemic team, a resident of Evergreen Park,
on Mar 26, 2020 at 1:21 pm

To sum up:

** @Sherry - it's the hands touching food/packaging, not the bags

Agreed.

** @pronoun says she - 'uses disposable bags because of e. coli' yet re-uses them?

E Coli will live longer on your re-used plastic bag than a cloth bag.

Can't have it both ways: either you are single use, or you are re-using.


 +   3 people like this
Posted by Kat, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood,
on Mar 28, 2020 at 10:53 am

[Post removed.]


 +   4 people like this
Posted by Jetman, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood,
on Mar 28, 2020 at 12:59 pm

Florida has become the second state forced to recognize air travel's role in transmission of the COVID-19 virus with the institution of a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all passengers arriving at Florida airports from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

Florida's governor said: "...about 100 flights from New York City and the surrounding area arrive to his state daily. He said he believes at least one person aboard each flight is infected with the illness."

If there is one person boarding every flight infected with the illness there is probably more than one person onboard infected after a three hour flight from New York to Florida.

"Florida governor orders all incoming New Yorkers to self-quarantine"
New York Post ~ March 23, 2020 Web Link

"Hawaii to quarantine all arrivals to the state for 14 days"
Associated Press ~ March 21, 2020 Web Link


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