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Two of Mountain View’s public school districts are not planning to have students return to the classroom for in-person instruction in the fall, at least not right away, citing safety concerns and a worrying increase in local COVID-19 cases.
The Mountain View Whisman School District and Mountain View-Los Altos High School District join a growing number of school districts across the state scrapping plans to reopen when the 2020-21 school year begins next month. Local and state teachers’ associations have also weighed in, arguing in-person instruction, while essential, is simply not a health risk they’re willing to take.
In a conference call with city leaders Wednesday, Mountain View Whisman Superintendent Ayinde Rudolph said the writing is on the wall, and that it’s “pretty much inevitable” that schools won’t be able to reopen when the school year begins. In countries that have successfully reopened schools, the number of cases was going down, Rudolph said, but they’re going up in Santa Clara County.
“We went from 2,900 cases on June 26 to 6,900 cases two weeks later — we clearly do not have this under control,” he said.
Rudolph confirmed in an email to parents late Thursday afternoon that schools would not open next month, and will begin the school year on Aug. 17 with “100% distance learning.”
Though local teachers and school administrators have long said that there is no replacement for in-person instruction in the classroom, Rudolph said families need to start bracing for what will be the “new reality,” which is a dependence on distance learning from home. The largest school districts in the state, including Los Angeles Unified and San Diego, are all keeping schools closed, and it would be unusual to buck the trend as a smaller suburban district, he said.
Media reports from earlier this week suggest that San Jose Unified has not decided whether to ditch its “hybrid” teaching model starting next month, in which students would spend part of the school week on campus. The Palo Alto Unified School District is still planning to have elementary school students and teachers back in the fall.
Rudolph’s comments are a divergence from a notice sent to parents earlier this month, which had asked them to pick between two learning options for their child. One was a hybrid approach in which students would return to campus two of the five days of the week, while the other option was for 100% remote instruction. District officials did not immediately respond to requests for the survey results.
The Mountain View-Los Altos High School District ran a survey asking parents, teachers and students whether they would want to return to campus, and the results show the community was deeply divided. About 35% wanted a hybrid model, 25% wanted full distance learning and 25% wanted a full reopening of schools. The remaining 15% were uncertain.
On the same Wednesday conference call, Mountain View-Los Altos Superintendent Nellie Meyer said the district is sticking to distance learning for the start of the school year, but that the plan could change as the school year progresses.
“Given our constraints, we did go with distance learning, but we’re going to check in every month to see how we can hopefully increasingly come back,” Meyer said.
The Mountain View-Los Altos High School District board is set to discuss and vote on the proposed distance learning plan Thursday evening starting at 6 p.m. Access more information here.
The process to plan for the 2020-21 school year involved more than 150 staff members plus parents to explore distance, in-person and hybrid approaches, according to the district.
If approved, the district will host a virtual return to school, set to take place over the first three days, Wednesday, Aug. 12 through Friday, Aug. 14. Unlike when schools first shut down this spring, students will be receiving letter grades throughout the new school year.
As health guidelines permit, small groups of students with specific needs will be brought back to campus for support and interaction, the district says.
Those groups would allow in-person interactions – as safety guidelines permit – for students enrolled in special education, English learners, and those who were not engaged with schoolwork in the spring. In addition, lab, art, and career and technical classes, as well as physical education, would also be among the priority groups for in-person learning. Face-to-face orientations to introduce students to teachers would also be a priority when feasible.
Staff will also be allowed to return to their classrooms in August or when safety measures permit.
Parents will be asked to pick one of two options for the first semester – Option A, which offers fully remote learning with increased opportunities for in-person learning when permissible; or Option B, which offers fully remote learning for the entire semester. Students won’t be able to switch from B to A until the semester is over, and students won’t be able to switch from A to B except for medical reasons, according to district documents.
The proposed schedule is fairly structured: Virtual school would run from 9:30 a.m. to 3:45 p.m. on all days except for Wednesdays, when classes would run from 9:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m.
Odd school periods would be held on Mondays and Thursdays for classes that are an hour and 15 minutes long, and even periods would follow the same schedule on Tuesdays and Fridays – with a dedicated office hours period during the first period of those days – and then each period would meet for 30 minutes on Wednesdays.
The decisions come as teachers throughout the state have raised alarm bells about the health and safety hazards of coming back to campus prematurely, particularly as the coronavirus pandemic appears to be worsening and reported cases are on the rise. Sean Dechter, president of the Mountain View Educators Association, said in an email that just one person — student, teacher, faculty or administrator — getting sick from COVID-19 is “one person too many,” and that districts must err on the side of caution.
“Only a statewide approach reminiscent of a war effort will be able to ensure the necessary precautions and preparations to keep our students, our staff, and our families safe.”
Jeff Freitas, California Federation of Teachers president
“We would all like to be back in school, but it is our health at risk,” Dechter said. “The school campus should be a safe location where education can be fostered through meaningful interactions and a positive learning environment.”
Right now, Dechter said teachers are not confident that enough will be done to prevent the potential exposure to COVID-19, and that the district must have better social distancing protocols, better transportation plans and a rigorous cleaning and sanitation regimen for school facilities.
“MVEA does not feel MVWSD has made the needed adjustments to have a safe and healthy return to campus in the fall,” he said.
Palo Alto teachers have also made a similar plea not to return to classrooms in the fall.
The California Federation of Teachers (CFT) sent a letter Monday to Gov. Gavin Newsom and top state legislators with even more pointed language, writing that the reopening guidelines put forth by the California Department of Education don’t go nearly far enough — particularly in light of the spike in statewide cases. Reopening should be contingent on whether cases have been on the decline for two weeks straight, and whether testing is more widely available for those who could potentially be exposed at schools, the group argued.
“The teachers and classified professionals of the CFT demand that science, not political pressure, be used to reopen our schools,” wrote CFT president Jeff Freitas. “Only a statewide approach reminiscent of a war effort will be able to ensure the necessary precautions and preparations to keep our students, our staff, and our families safe.”
With distance learning almost assured to continue in Mountain View through the fall, Rudolph said there will be a concerted effort to improve the quality of remote instruction, rather than the “Band-Aid” approach that was used in the immediate aftermath of school closures in March. This will include better communication with parents, synchronous live instruction from teachers and ways to accommodate small group activities and independent work.
Just 1 week ago (on July 9) we received an email from the superintendent of MVWSD saying something different. I understand that this is evolving, but this is crazy. And the reasoning is that as a suburban district, they don’t want to buck the trend of the larger, urban districts in Southern California, while SJUSD and Palo Alto might? What is going on? When are they going to let the parents know? Why do I have to learn this from MV Voice and not MVWSD? Not impressed.
Only sane decision. The health and well being of our teachers is priority one.
I wish we would have followed the scientific approach that shapes policy by age group risks so that younger elementary age students and students with serious developmental needs serviced by schools were given the -option- to be in school, given that the science shows the low risk for young children https://youtu.be/yh9gmca6o_A?t=869&fbclid=IwAR036WdJ4pHpdgPjOLunSX1nbODwYK0EgOkZ_7z6UH_A05H3iiYCNqlUmdQ, combined with safety procedures, together would have allowed us to prevent the developmental loss that families without the resources to enrich at home will now face. Decision made, lets work to ensure there’s zero digital divide in Mountain View.
@Dad, Rex Manor: Why is that priority one? Even if it is, are you accounting for the incredible (and I would say incredibly disproportionate) costs of this? Besides, presumably they can sit this out if they want to – they are not forced back into the classroom at gunpoint. I respect teachers and want them to be safe, but many of us also have jobs we need to perform and children we want to have (relatively) “normal” childhood experiences and socialization. Asking teachers to teach if they want to is not sending them to the guillotine.
@Father I’d also want my kids to have a normal childhood. Unfortunately that won’t be possible while we have a pandemic and the most incompetent and corrupt federal government of all time. There’ll be no normal until we can work together as a country to have widespread testing, contact tracing and spread prevention. Depending on how November goes we may see it start to happen in 2021. If it goes bad, I might find a job in New Zealand and spend a couple of “normal” years there.
@Father
So, just because things change the school district shouldn’t adapt? The MV Voice is reporting comments of the Superintendent not a board approved recommendation. I agree that it would be nice to have more information from the district (hello? P.I.O. Hausman?) but they’ve been working on linking arms with PAUSD, LASD, and Sunnyvale so maybe there’s some delay with coordination? Nice to have a windsock like the Voice at this time.
Also, don’t be too quick to claim things about SJUSD and PAUSD. The SJUSD teacher’s union has already chimed in with a letter on their fb page way back on the 10th. PAUSD’s union is also concerned. A lot of districts in the county were following PAUSD’s example and guidance, I guess that’s over.
The district needed to focus their attention on fully addressing a single scenario. They seemed overwhelmed with planning from the middle for all scenarios and still have a lot of unanswered questions on the table about how equitable education is going to be performed.
If staff/students got sick in hybrid, they’d likely have to move to distance learning anyway so they should’ve start with comprehensive plans for fully closed *then* back-plan through hybrid and fully open.
Anyone who has driven anywhere over the past couple of months can clearly see that kids are already socializing in numbers regardless of whether or not school is in session. This decision certainly isn’t going to protect them any further since their behavior outside of school will continue as is.
Rudolph said that we needed to brace ourselves for what seems to be inevitable. He did not announce a new policy. Maybe attend today’s town hall meeting and find out?
Good call by both districts. Community spread is too high now. School is a congregate setting and also results in increased movement and interactions among people in the community (teachers dropping children at daycare, gas station trips, teenagers getting together) — all of which we need to avoid. As a side benefit, distance learning is a constant signal to our community that life is *not* proceeding normally. We need everyone to be aware that we face grave risks and they should take extreme precautions so that more of us will avoid hospitalization and death.
Sigh. There goes my job. It was hard enough with the loss of income already, but full time school from home means full time not working. I realize covid19 sucks, but so does having to work. I can’t take my kid there, and I can’t leave him at home by himself, so time to go on unemployment and find some cheaper place to live. This situation sucks in every way.
The districts are right to not open to the mass gathering of students to receive and transfer Covid-19. Make other plans. Learning from home or in small groups in some homes supervised by some parents (probably best by moms).
Well we just got the email from Dr. Rudolph about the district opening 100% distance learning. I’m not sure how distance learning will work for me and my kids, but I was already frustrated. They were going to be at home 3 out of 5 days with the hybrid model and I wasn’t sure how I was going to pull that off. Especially if they didn’t attend school on the same two days. (I recognize there might have been a priority consideration for siblings, but no guarantee was offered.)
Frustrations aside, it’s ghoulish (or foolish) for anyone to demand during a surge in cases that school districts risk the lives of students or staff and their families through mandatory exposure to an often undetectable, deadly virus. Teachers want to teach kids in person but they aren’t soldiers and this isn’t a war. There aren’t “acceptable losses” to take here.
They were treated pretty crappy by society before the pandemic it is nice to see people start to understand their role more and recognize that they are people too. They’ve certainly got some work ahead of them and I hope they can keep my kids engaged, busy and learning. I just wish the districts had all come to this conclusion last month but I guess there was more optimism then (and fewer cases).
1.2 home loan for the superintendent? Check. Fat raises for everyone? Check. Okay, let’s keep the schools closed and go all online. Because hey, the board said this pandemic would have no effect on school financing in the long run. And it sure doesn’t look like the pandemic has any affect on coming to school either. Nope. Not one bit. And we certainly won’t need funds for any of this mess in the future. Not a cent. We should just give a big round of applause to our board. Wilson is a failed leader. Wheeler? Pure genius in her own mind. Gutierrez? What do you expect? They guy can’t even tie his shoes, let alone reach them. Blakey, and the other? Completely out of their league.
Fire the superintendent and recall the board.
Me, me, me, me, me. That is all I keep hearing in this discussion. When are we going to acknowledge that WE are all in this boat together and we need to unite? We need to stop arguing and do what is needed. Science tells us what we need to do. I’m not going to rehash those facts, they are everywhere for people to read. Right now those facts tell us what we need to do, and opening schools is not it.
So, let’s focus on solutions. Schools can’t be the only one to provide those solutions. We neither have the funding nor the systems and structures in place to solve all the problems caused by schools staying closed. Schools and teachers need to focus on teaching online well. Schools and teachers need to focus on addressing special education students (addressing IEP needs) and low socio-economic students (food, internet, materials, etc) in a safe socially distant manner. Schools and teachers need to focus on how we will reopen safely when the numbers show it is reasonable. That’s it.
The state and federal government and businesses need to focus on supporting families that need to work away from the home. For example, they could ensure that parents who have school age children have the flexibility and are paid for 40 hours a week even if they only work 32 hours. This would allow for families that have to work outside the home to band together in groups of 5, each family taking one day to support the children in that group, and not worry about how they will pay bills, fees their families, and pay for housing.
This requires parents to participate in the solution as well. Those having to work away from home, will need to work with others in the manner described above. Those working from home need to support the community by figuring out how to balance working from home and supporting their children’s learning. Businesses will have to give these parents flexibility as well.
This pandemic requires ALL OF US to work together. We need to stop thinking about ourselves and start thinking about how we can help each other. It is impossible for any one sector or group of people to solve this alone. Let’s stop arguing and acknowledge the reality of this situation and start working on the solutions. We have very little time to implement them.
One last thing, teachers love our students and our communities. We hate this as much as the next person. Our entire professional efficacy is based on the success of our students. We are watching the effects of this pandemic on our students and dying inside a little more each day. Keeping schools closed is the last thing we want, but we know that our schools do not have the capability of keeping our students and communities safe right now.
For parents who must leave home to work, make arrangements for your child(ren) to be supervised and educated – including remotely by teachers. That could be at the house or apartment of another parent (mom) or for small groups of children at your place of work. Families are small groups. Two or three families are relatively small groups. To be avoided are large groups indoors for long periods ( i.e., the traditional public school setting). There is no easy way to battle a viral pandemic – especially with a sociopath in the White House.
Has anybody looked at the statistics re Covid? The death rate is extremely low and likely even low than the stats show since we still don’t know how many cases there are relative to the deaths. The science does not indicate that kids should be kept out of school- they are at VERY low risk so if schools are being closed simply because teachers (who, if under the age of 70, are also at low risk) are fearful of contracting the virus then we need to allow those teachers to stay home and collect unemployment while the non-vulnerable can return to teach in the classroom.
@Gary – “Make other plans. Learning from home or in small groups in some homes supervised by some parents (probably best by moms).”
WOW! Probably best by moms because they’re home anyway, cooking and cleaning? Or their options are to drop their kids off while working at the home of another “mom”? Newsflash: The year is 2020.
For the record, as far as I am concerned, the acceptable risk to staff and students for the worst outcome (which cannot be predicted based on statistics) is zero. Pointing out that the risk is statistically very low does nothing to speak to any individual’s specific risks which cannot always be known. Risk factors are often unpredictable and not yet present. If any student or staff member were to die, despite the low statistical risk, I find that unacceptable. I agree, expecting ‘moms’ to take up the slack for childcare is a huge assumption about gender roles in the year 2020, however suggesting that community members support each other is absolutely appropriate!
Acceptance of nothing greater than zero risk is not reality. Infectious diseases are part of life. If you’re afraid of dying from one you should never leave your home. Ever. That would be zero risk of dying from an infectious disease (assuming you live alone or that your housemates also never leave home). Also you’d need to grow your own food and self produce whatever household supplies you might need. There have always been risks associated with all kinds of viral and bacterial diseases but we don’t cocoon ourselves in a bubble in fear. At least we never have in the past. This fear of disease is quite new, propagated by the fear-mongering media.
Preventing children from attending school is detrimental to their emotional health and brain development and the low income kids are most at risk academically. Schools in Europe have reopened without consequences. Stop the madness. Send the kids to school.
@Statistics
” This fear of disease is quite new, propagated by the fear-mongering media.”
A new statistic: 130,000+ dead and counting. Aside from dead bodies, there are plenty of deathbed confessions and survivor stories though to counter your dismissiveness of the danger. But ignorance is bliss and a lot of people deal with fear by ignoring or denying the source of their fear.
“Schools in Europe have reopened without consequences. Stop the madness. Send the kids to school.”
You conveniently ignored the statistics about how few cases there are in Europe compared to the surge of cases we are having in the US. Another statistic that’s important to consider is contagion or transmission rates. Maybe check out the R0 values for counties different states/counties. They’re not great for us right now. If you’re going to use statistics, you might want to consider other relevant ones before sending people into unsafe situations. I’m glad you’re not in charge.
Like I was saying before, the type of statement you’re making is ghoulish. As if you want people to die. You don’t seem to care if we enable an environment for kids pass it on to others more vulnerable and then they die. There’s already a body count. Some empathy along with sound judgement based on *all* relevant statistics is in order.
It is unfortunate that this announcement comes so late in the summer for us to make any concrete plans. It is also unfortunate how many members of our community are so eager for us to return to in-person teaching despite the surges in our community.
For those eager beavers that want to get back to normal and expedite our return to the classroom, I urge you to pursue your substitute teaching credentials, and come and join us when we re-open in phase 3. Come and spend your time with some of the most unsanitary members of our community that will struggle to follow guidelines such as wear a mask, stay away from your friends, and wash your hands after you use the rest room.
The socialization that will be possible in stage 3, is not going to be like it was before. Still no small groups, still no hugs, still no library visits, no shared game pieces, no shared equipment. Your child will be physically present at school, but still emotionally and socially deprived.
Also, don’t forget that some of us teachers have children of our own. We are still expected to report to our jobs virtually, whilst entertaining/supervising and teaching our children from home. This affects us all. Please stop being so selfish about how hard we’re making it for you. We’re all in this together.
@safe & sane- People die every year- this is not a new phenomenon. Covid deaths are being over-counted because anyone that dies with covid symptoms (not even diagnosed covid so it could be flu or other virus) is being counted as a covid death regardless of the cause of death (i.e. if you die of a heart attack but have covid symptoms, you’re counted as a covid death). The stats are so skewed on this pandemic that nobody knows what the real facts are. But we do know that the death rate for covid is quite low for those under 60 and practically non-existent for kids. And yes, US has more deaths than Europe because we have a larger population but we don’t have more deaths per capita. In fact, we’re lower than several EU countries.
The science is also saying now that kids are not transmitting the disease either. Those supporting closing the schools act as though there is no downside to keeping kids out of school but the detriment is great and doing so will have long term effects on these kids.
For the teacher that wants to impose these draconian conditions on children once they go back to school, God forbid! Teachers with your level of fear don’t belong in the classroom with kids – you’d be doing them more harm than good as you transfer that fear to the children. Send the kids back to school and send the willing teachers back with them. Those that are fearful should stay home and they can keep their kids home too to do virtual learning. I’m sure there’s a way to video the in-class teaching.
You may be watching too much FOX Fake News. Children do contract Covid-19 and do spread it to others. Even without outward “symptoms,” many children are being found to have harmed organs including their lungs. The virus is especially harmful in high loads stemming from prolonged exposure indoors – such as in classrooms. The death rate has fallen from over 5% of “confirmed case” to about 2% currently – but deaths lag. It usually takes an extra few weeks to die an excruciating death alone in the ICU (intensive care unit). And apart from deaths, survivors do not seem to fully recover or even to acquire lasting immunity. It appears possible to stop the spread. Some countries have succeeded for now. But just slowing the spread enables some medical assistance and buys time for the development of new treatments and maybe vaccines. Largely because of FOX NEWS zombies and Republicans mindlessly following the ramblings of sociopath Donald Trump, the virus is back on the march. And thousands of other diseases are poised to “jump” to humans around the globe. Instead of FOX NEWS, tune in the movie Contagion to glimpse the next “China” virus Trump would likewise downplay and disregard in an effort to retain power. To survive, humans will need to DUMP TRUMP and his ilk and advance scientifically. Plus we Americans need to reorganize to (sometimes) learn and work remotely. And we should figure out how to make the world and national economies less vulnerable to disruption and even collapse as challenges arise. Plus, here in the USA, we make too many games and not enough of what’s actually needed. Resources are badly allocated. We live in an economic house of cards even the wind can knock down. You could work on those things instead of whining about teachers.
The virus has exposed years of insufficient school budgets. We have to properly fund schools.
Folks, get real: schools have been defunded for years, we don’t have the facilities and the level of staffing that permits even half of students to attend. Think- there are not enough janitors to superficially clean all classrooms and bathrooms at all schools but we expect the same staff to now thoroughly disinfect classrooms and bathrooms multiple times a day. Some of the newly, cheaply-built schools don’t even have enough playground space to accommodate distancing, even for just half the normal level of kids.
Before answering surveys to send your kids to school, demand that your principal walk you through the school’s preparedness plan. How many custodians? How many bathrooms? How often will everything be disinfected? What will happen if the teachers get sick? Will they send your child to another teacher’s classroom, as was happening in March? What will kids be doing during recess? Where will they have lunch?
Even when transmission rates are down, it will be hard for some schools to open safely. Schools need more custodial staff, more instructional aides, more nurses.
Call your senator and support the Heroes Act.
Call your family members and do your part so voters pass Prop 15 in November https://www.yes15.org/
Only then can you hope for a return to a “normal” 21-22 school year.
@Statistics
“US has more deaths than Europe because we have a larger population but we don’t have more deaths per capita.”
Population of US: ~328 million
Population of European Union: ~448 million
(Population of “Europe”: >750 million)
So, no, the U.S. doesn’t have a larger population…
COVID-19 Deaths in U.S.: ~139k
COVID-19 Deaths in E.U.: ~180k
and the E.U. has more deaths…
E.U. COVID-19 Death Rate: .0402%
U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate: .0424%
and the U.S. death rate is higher.
If you want to compare individual countries in the E.U. then perhaps you should compare them against individual states in the U.S. since our federal government is providing about as much coordinated assistance to states as the E.U. leadership is to individual E.U. countries. Even then, California still doesn’t come off so great.
What I find curious is the claim by our conservative/republican friends that our school system should be more like Europe. *Now* they want to be more like our “socialist” friends across the pond? That also means they’re ready to pay teachers more and give educators greater respect. What a show of integrity!
“The science is also saying now that kids are not transmitting the disease either.”
No, Fox News says that. The science does not – it says the opposite. Please take some time to learn how viruses work. COVID-19 is particularly tricky in how it affects different age groups, but it spreads the same as many, many other viruses. Children are especially good at spreading these types of viruses. It’s clear you haven’t spent much time around educators and the germ pools they are exposed to.
“Those supporting closing the schools act as though there is no downside to keeping kids out of school but the detriment is great and doing so will have long term effects on these kids.”
Just because people aren’t ready to have kids attend school in person doesn’t mean they don’t recognize the costs. The majority recognize the preference for, and benefits of, in person education and are concerned about learning loss but they still recognize the irreparable harm the spread of infection can cause and choose safety over foolhardy recklessness. Want to help get kids back in school, wear a mask, donate to PTAs and educational foundations.
As others have noted, $$$ is partly the answer here. There are a lot of problems that could be solved by appropriately funding them. PPE, testing and contact-tracing for school attendees (staff+kids), childcare for essential workers, technology for equitable education support, etc. Provide and target the funds correctly and you are investing in the overall economy.
We’re largely in this mess because of the actions of the anti-mask-wearing, Fauci-and-science-are-wrong, I’ve-been-conditioned-to-only-watch-one-news-channel sets. They worry about the economy during the pandemic but don’t educate themselves and participate in the things needed to do to make things better and then blame everyone else for how bad it is. They’ve been led down the wrong path.
We’re all swimming in the same pool. If you pee in one end, it doesn’t just stay there.
November can’t come soon enough.
@Everyone and @Gary
“confirmed case” is a deceitful term intended to mislead, not inform.
It does not mean what people assume it means.
“The death rate has fallen from over 5% of “confirmed case” to about 2% currently -”
See, there everyone, the specific use of that term “confirmed case”, that’s a case of what Mark Twain warned us about when he wrote:
There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics. Mark Twain.
This new virus, SARS-CoV2, is being judged in statistical ways that no prior infectious disease has ever been judged. Ways that are designed to distort the primary question we all have.
What is the mortality rate of those who have been infected?
In order to make the risk calculation, we need to know how many people have gotten infected in total and what percentage of people who got infected ended up in the hospital and what percentage of total infected died.
Those who wish to manipulate us have been doing everything they can think of from the start to obscure and confuse the answer to that most vital question of Mortality Rate. “confirmed case” is one of the biggest ways they obscure the truth.
The newly redefined term “confirmed case” is being used in a way that defies the plain meaning of the words that common people would recognize. Most people today still don’t understand what this deceitful term has been defined to mean.
The new term “confirmed case” has been given the sneaky definition that only people who have active virus currently “shedding” (meaning they are spreading the virus around at that moment) and have tested positive by the MOLECULAR DNA test will be counted as a “confirmed case”.
Anyone tested positive with the “Anti-Body” or “Antigen” test are NOT being counted in the calculations of the official “Mortality Rate”.
But, even the WHO and CDC and other tops health experts agree that the actual rate of infections is at least 10 times higher than we are aware of.
Since the bulk of people who have been infected with SARS-CoV2 either: never had symptoms, or survived their infection without ever getting this molecular test, or they were tested too late and the virus was already not spreading, or had a false negative, etc. In these cases, which are the vast majority of people infected, none of them got counted in the misleading term “confirmed case”.
If that was not sneaky enough of a way to inflate the “Mortality Rate” numbers, the testing priorities have been totally skewed in favor of finding more people who are actually sick and who are believed most likely to have been exposed.
To get a proper scientifically valid rate of infection, which is a REQUIRED part of an honest Mortality Rate calculation, you must test large numbers of people at random by BOTH the molecular test AND the anti-body/antigen test.
You must know what percentage of the population has the CoVid-19 active now AND what percentage of people did have an infection of the SARS-CoV2 virus in the past.
If you don’t have those numbers gathered in a scientific manner, you cannot honestly give even an approximate number for the Mortality Rate.
All we can say for SURE, is that the true Mortality Rate of SARS-CoV2 keeps going down with better science and is far less than 1%. The few scientists who have made reasonably scientific efforts to calculate a Mortality Rate have produced numbers under 0.5% and much lower than that.
I fully support mandatory masks and best possible social distancing, but we must be honest with people or we lose all credibility and the public will ignore everything the “experts” and government officials tell us.
Without a robust trust in our medical “experts”, people will simply fall back on their political party or what they feel would be best for them or just on wishful thinking.
@safe and sane: who said our school system should be more like Europe’s? I said the European kids have returned to school with no uptake in Covid cases which tells us that kids are not vectors. It’s a shame that some people, no matter the topic, turn the discussion into an “I hate Trump/Republicans” campaign. Stick to the subject- which is whether kids should be sent back to school. It’s non partisan. And the science DOES say “yes!”.
@Statistics
You ask: “who said our school system should be more like Europe’s?”
I already had said “…our conservative/republican friends…”
Whether or not I point out a commonality in your statements with some more conservative voices, doesn’t change the harmony they make together. It’s like: whether or not you test a person with the virus, they still have the virus. The U.S. has many notable differences to Europe when it comes to COVID-19 activity today. We are not in the same place as they are infection-wise. You can’t ignore the other relevant data when comparing the two.
The U.S. isn’t a monolith either. Santa Clara County is one of the more active counties in the U.S. right now so more (temporary) restrictions are warranted here than in other counties. If you live in the corner of North Dakota and there are no cases evidenced by testing, hospitalizations, or deaths, maybe it’s ok to have kids in school.
You said: “… the European kids have returned to school with no uptake in Covid cases which tells us that kids are not vectors.”
First off, which environment doesn’t have active vectors? Can you remind us of the current infection rates in the U.S. vs. Europe? R0’s? Deaths? What your information might be telling you is that European kids are reflecting the reduced viral load in the community. What your information could be telling you is there could be a threshold we can look into for safe return, but it doesn’t tell you what that is.
Remember, you also said: “The science is also saying now that kids are not transmitting the disease either.”
Hmm… “are not vectors”… “are not transmitting”… Those are some stunning absolutes.
And they’re completely false.
Studies from other countries, including South Korea with its testing efforts and contact tracing far superior to ours, have been clear that children are vectors and that very young children are (at best) only half as effective vectors while older kids (~10+) are as effective or better at spreading the virus than adults.
So, kids *are* vectors and we know adults (and other kids) can die from virus contracted from these little vectors. If I’m a teacher, even if I don’t have a family, I have reason to be concerned. If we return schools to normal too soon, instead of a single, infected, less effective vector kid in a class, we end up with a more effective group vector. Remember that we also know that increased exposure to the virus = increased likelihood of infection; more infected kids = more exposure for all . I’d love to know what the exact viral community load threshold for safe return is but I’m not willing to risk students, staff, and families to find out. Certainly not with the metrics Santa Clara County has right now.
Dr. Fauci who weeks ago said that schools should look at reopening in the fall, tempered his remarks by excepting those schools in hot spots. Our county’s hot right now. Counties in Southern California have it even worse. When it cools down, getting back to school is a priority, but keep in mind that yo-yo’ing between opened and closed for businesses and schools doesn’t do the economy any good and doesn’t provide students with the security (mental, emotional, educational) they need to perform at their best in a pandemic.
Quoting Dr. Fauci: “There’s so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus, don’t get yourself into false complacency.”
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