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Santa Clara County hopeful about slowed growth in COVID-19 cases

Original post made on Apr 7, 2020

In the latest sign that the Bay Area shutdown is effectively containing the spread of the coronavirus, Santa Clara County is seeing the rate of new cases gradually stabilize.

Read the full story here Web Link posted Tuesday, April 7, 2020, 1:09 PM

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Comments (8)

12 people like this
Posted by resident
a resident of Old Mountain View
on Apr 7, 2020 at 3:33 pm

How meaningful are these numbers with testing being so incomplete and inconsistent?

5 people like this
Posted by MV resident
a resident of Monta Loma
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:50 pm

The amount of testing has significantly increased, yet the numbers are starting to go down. This is an encouraging trend.

17 people like this
Posted by Where are all the tests?
a resident of Castro City
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:54 pm

'amount of testing has significantly increased"

We're not any where near the tests we were promised by Trump, or the tests we require.

9 people like this
Posted by Measurable w/o tests
a resident of Cuernavaca
on Apr 8, 2020 at 7:50 am

While a lagging indicator, the number of hospitalizations for C19 is a good indicator of how we're trending in the absence of widespread testing. Since we're not seeing #s materially increase, it means social distancing is working. And we have a lot of spare ICU beds which is amazing vs. what was projected to happen without taking preventative measures.

We do certainly need widespread testing and quarantining if we're ever going to get back to anything resembling normalcy.

2 people like this
Posted by The Business Man
a resident of Castro City
on Apr 8, 2020 at 3:50 pm

Update on COVID 19

From what I got from this web page (Web Link) 2.2 Million tests have been done, however that may be testing done multiple times on the same person because the reports are not consistent. But let’s assume they are not retests. This is 7 tests per thousand people in the U.S. in comparison to Italy where they have 14 per thousand.

The current total as of 1530 PDT on April 8 is 428,901, and those hospitalized and recovered are 23,229, and those that died are 14,600. That means that more than 1/3 of the hospitalized are dying in the hospitals. But since there are only 2,200,000 tests done, we really do not know how many have died in the general public, morticians and coroners do not seem to have enough tests to use on all dead suspected with COVID 19.

OKAY then let’s divide 428,900/2,200,000 which results in an infection rate of 19.5% of the tests. And let’s divide the total hospitalizations which is both the hospitalized and died statistic together that comes to 1.7%. That means that as of now the hospitalization requirement makes up 8.8% of the tested sample. And of that let’s divide 14,600/2,200,000 which results in .6%.

So let’s now use those statistics to do a prediction.

If the country of 330,000,000 is infected at 19.5%, then there could be today 64,350,000. The expected hospitalizations are 1.7% of 330,000,000 or 5,610,000. The current expected deaths are 1,980,000 people.

But as long as we continue the shutdown, these numbers are variable. If we remove the shelter in place orders we will see the infections increase and do so very quickly. We need to stay in place until the TREATMENT and VACCINE can be found that works safely.

2 people like this
Posted by Dan Waylonis
a resident of Jackson Park
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:11 pm

Models are just that. The official ones are changing constantly to reflect updated information.

I'd recommend not fixating on predictions and instead make sure that you practice the level of sequestration that you feel comfortable with. Wash your hands. Stay home if you're sick or at risk.

26 people like this
Posted by Libertarian
a resident of Jackson Park
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:31 pm

Why is it unsurprising that a libertarian like Dan Waylonis, even in a global pandemic, sees no place for anything more than individual action? Find your own comfort level with how many elderly people you as an asymptomatic carrier infect and kill?

13 people like this
Posted by Hahaha
a resident of Another Mountain View Neighborhood
on Apr 9, 2020 at 6:33 am

Dan knows more than medical science because Dan thinks he has some innate common sense that TRUMPS all the experts who have spent years studying in the field. Dan fancies his opinion as an expert opinion I guess, which is laughable.

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