This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
An interrogation is a staple scene in TV cop shows, with a detective often telling a suspect that “we can do this the easy way or the hard way.”
That phrase pretty much described Democrat Xavier Becerra’s situation going into Tuesday’s primary election for governor.
It seemed almost certain that he would finish either first or second given pre-election polls and the early returns on Election Day, and thus move on to the November general election. But it was uncertain whether billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer or Steve Hilton, a British-born former television commentator, would also be one of the top two.
Were it Hilton, Becerra would likely have an easy November win, given the state’s very lopsided Democratic voter registration margin versus Republicans — the latest count at 45% to 25% — and Hilton’s association with uber-unpopular President Donald Trump.
Facing Steyer in November would be a much different scenario. He spent more than $200 million on his primary campaign, much of it on TV and internet ads that portrayed Becerra as incompetent or potentially corrupt. If given the chance, he would spend even more on attacks.
Wednesday morning, 12 hours after the polls closed, it seemed very likely that Hilton would be Becerra’s November rival if results hold, and thus just as likely that the former congressman, attorney general and Biden administration cabinet member would succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.
As votes were counted throughout the night, Becerra and Hilton ran neck-to-neck with shares in the mid-20% range – Hilton slightly ahead this morning – while Steyer was about seven or eight percentage points behind.
Late Tuesday night, appearing before a throng of cheering supporters in Los Angeles, Becerra came close to declaring himself a primary winner. He portrayed himself, if winning in November, as “a working-class governor with a law degree and a union card.”
He also would be California’s only Latino governor in the state’s modern era and thus a symbolic figure for the state’s largest ethnic group, which he celebrated by delivering some of his remarks in Spanish.
Becerra’s rise to the top of a 61-candidate field of would-be governors has been one of many unforeseen aspects of a campaign unlike any other we’ve seen in the post-World War II era.
For months, we didn’t even know who was running. The race had no natural frontrunner as potentially dominant figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris weighed their chances but gave it a pass. Sen. Alex Padilla and Attorney General Rob Bonta also steered away. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis announced she would run, then dropped out to run for state treasurer, a race she leads with more than half of ballots counted.
The field narrowed itself down to 10 serious candidates. Two months ago, Becerra was merely one of several politicians in the lower tier with just a 4% share of support in an April 5 tracking poll by the state Democratic Party. Congressman Eric Swalwell was the leading Democrat in that poll at 12%, followed closely by Steyer.
Just days later, however, Swalwell suspended his campaign and resigned from Congress after several women accused him of sexual harassment or assault. By mid-April, Becerra had shot up to the top of the Democratic heap, tied at 13% with Steyer in a later poll.
From then on, it was a one-on-one duel with Steyer. Despite his rival’s ceaseless barrage of personal invective, Becerra continued to gain and by the last pre-election Democratic tracking poll on May 16, he led Steyer 21% to 15%, roughly the same margin in the election tally so far.
While it’s still arithmetically possible for Steyer to claim one of the top two positions, nothing in the overnight results pointed in that direction.
That means we will soon turn to November and what likely will be an easy win for Becerra, who would then learn how difficult it is to govern such a complex state.
