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Despite incremental increases in enrollment over the last couple of years, the Mountain View Whisman School District is preparing for its student body to shrink.
The school board reviewed local demographic statistics and enrollment projections at an April 30 meeting that showed how birth rates are lower than they were before the pandemic. Housing developments currently under construction across Mountain View aren’t expected to generate many students for the school district, either. Rob Murray, director of demographics from King Consulting, told the board that the district could be looking at a downward enrollment trend for the next several years.
This school year, the district enrolled 4,645 students. Projected enrollment for next year dips to 4,603, and by the 2032-33 school year, King Consulting projects that enrollment will drop to 4,292.
Murray’s presentation came as part of a preliminary update to the board on Mountain View Whisman’s need to make changes to its Master Facilities Plan, which outlines projects and upgrades for its campuses. These updates aren’t expected to come until next school year, according to administrators.
The district first developed the Master Facilities Plan in 2019 to accommodate student growth, according to a district report. However, after the start of the pandemic, Mountain View Whisman, like many other districts across the state, saw a significant decline in enrollment. Since then, the student body has increased slightly but is still nowhere near pre-COVID levels.
Murray attributes the district’s recent growth in enrollment to the expansion of transitional kindergarten. Over the last few years, the state rolled out requirements to broaden eligibility for the optional program. Then, for the 2025-26 school year, TK became universally available to all 4-year-olds.
Data from Thursday’s presentation shows that for the 2022-23 school year, 102 students were enrolled in transitional kindergarten. This school year, when eligibility expanded, that number jumped to 247 students. Murray told the Voice that these increases have been “masking some of the underlying trends.”
“What doesn’t change is the size of that birth cohort,” Murray said, noting that the new state requirements just meant that the district could enroll more kids at once. “The number of kids who are a certain age for any given year is still trending down.”
When talking about birth cohorts, Murray is referring to the number of children born in a specific year to people who live within the district’s boundaries. In 2014, the number of local births was calculated at 726, according to his presentation. Last year, 596 local births were recorded, a 17.9% decrease.
Mountain View Whisman isn’t the only school district experiencing lower birth rates, Murray said. It’s a trend, seen not just in California but across the entire country, he added.
“Demographically, I don’t know of any area in the state, certainly in coastal California, where you are seeing natural demographic growth,” Murray said.
Along with birth rate data, Murray also looked at planned and proposed developments in the area to determine if it’s likely for these housing projects to generate district students. He found that there are about 10,000 new residences in the works within the district boundaries, which are anticipated to house approximately 460 elementary and middle school students.
Superintendent Jeff Baier told the Voice that King Consulting’s enrollment projections didn’t necessarily surprise him, given what he knows about California’s declining birth rates. He added that the information gleaned from the company’s analysis will be used to help ensure that the district’s Master Facilities Plan meets the needs of its students.
During the April 30 discussion, board member Devon Conley posed the question: “What size school is too small?” While this wasn’t answered at the meeting, district administrators are planning to come back to the board in September with more comprehensive data, as well as a draft of the updated facilities plan.
“Thoughtful planning is really important for an uninterrupted experience … for our students,” Baier said. “We try to prevent as many rough spots as possible for students and their families.”
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