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Peninsula real estate experts who shared their fall housing predictions are, clockwise from top left, Elyse Barca, Tori Atwell, Brian Chancellor, Patrick Foy, Chris Iverson and Alexander Lewicki.
The Midpeninsula housing market is heading into fall with low inventory, strong demand and questions about where prices are headed. We asked six local real estate agents what they saw this summer and what they expect to see by Thanksgiving. Their answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Q: By Thanksgiving, what do you think will be noticeably different about the market compared with this summer or a typical fall?
“Inventory will drop across the board. Homes will either sell or be withdrawn for the holidays. Same prices, but with a reduction of inventory, there will be more buyers per home, thus more offers and/or quicker sales in fall vs. summer, which has the highest inventory. The average seller/consumer thinking selling in the spring or summer is what you do, thus more people put their home on the market in the spring and summer. Less inventory creates a greater sense of urgency for buyers.”
– Tori Atwell,
broker associate, The Agency Real Estate, Los Altos
“As we know, there are micromarkets from one city to another and also from neighborhood to neighborhood. Historically, in my primary market of Palo Alto, we have had a summertime slowdown, with the market picking up within a week or two after Labor Day. However, for the last three years, the market has awakened in mid-August. Inventory levels remain low and make for a competitive market for homes that are move-in ready. I do not see the trend of scarcity changing. While the fall will have more inventory than the summer, buyers who think this uptick will be constant will be disappointed. There are recent high-end sales that created shockwaves.”
– Brian Chancellor,
vice president of Experience, Christie’s International Real Estate — Sereno Group
“Palo Alto is remarkably consistent. We pulled five years of MLS data and looked at sales volume, price, dollars per square foot, days on market, and sale price as a percentage of list price. That ratio does not jump around the way people think it does. There are extremes, like any market, but year after year the center holds. This is a sophisticated pool of buyers and sellers. Short answer: unless something exogenous hits, Palo Alto will do this fall what it has done for decades. It will perform. That is why it is a good place to buy and a good place to sell. By Thanksgiving I do not expect a different sale-to-list world. I expect the usual seasonal quiet around the edges, and a market that still pays roughly what it has been paying relative to ask.”
– Patrick Foy
partner and principal of Midtown Realty Partners, Palo Alto
“Summer saw buyers come back to the low and middle tier of the market (up to $10 million). The bottom tier (under $5 million) sat on the sidelines this spring as concerns about another war, announced layoffs at large local employers and hopes of interest rates coming down were all incentives to wait. By summer, the general opinion seemed to be — we didn’t get laid off, interest rates are more likely to go up than down, the war’s impact on our standard of living is minimal, and prices don’t seem to be dropping, so we best get to it. I’m expecting the fall market to continue what I saw in late spring and early summer. Buyers are out in force, especially in the under-$5M range. There is a lot of excitement about the coming AI company IPOs and many high-end sellers are holding off waiting for those buyers to become liquid and enter the market.”
– Chris Iverson,
Realtor, Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty, Menlo Park
“Prices in the summer and into the fall typically stagnate or slightly decline, providing a good opportunity for buyers to secure value as compared to the peak of the spring market. This summer was noticeably different. In Palo Alto, we actually saw prices increase in July and August. The price per square foot rose seven percent in those late summer months, and median prices rose 3.5 percent as compared with the first six months of the year. Developers have also re-entered the marketplace, with teardowns doing very well this summer, a nod to the confidence building in the market.
There is a noticeable buzz developing, as we are beginning to see the AI wealth wave trickle down from San Francisco. I expect prices to continue to trend upward into the fall, providing buyers with very little respite.”
– Alexander Lewicki,
senior buyer specialist, DeLeon Realty Inc., Palo Alto
“Spring sets the tone in large part for summer and our Spring 2026 was up 17% in unit sales over 2025. The summer, though not as robust, was surprisingly busy in June and July, but went quiet in August, probably attributable to rising interest rates and continued nervousness around inflation. Oddly, though conditions have not changed substantially in September, we are still seeing quality product coming to market, which will hopefully indicate the typical surge we see in the early fall market. A lot of the activity, however, is somewhat isolated to specific price range, property location, and especially move-in condition. The hot ranges right now are mid-$2mm, the $4mm to $6mm properties, and total luxury, all of which are attracting a larger than usual percentage of cash buyers. We will have to see what the Fed does with interest rates, but it seems the market has gotten accustomed to rates in the 6+% range and isn’t noticing the minor fluctuations up and down that have been occurring recently.”
– Elyse Barca,
Realtor, Compass Real Estate, Menlo Park
Quick round: Where the market is headed
We asked four local real estate agents whether they expect prices, listings, multiple offers, time to sell, price reductions and the luxury market to move up, down or stay about the same this fall. Four of the six responded to the quick round. The arrows show each realtor’s expectation compared with this summer. Three of the four expect more multiple offers this fall, and all four expect homes to sell faster.
| ↑ UP, → SAME or ↓DOWN? | Tori Atwell | Patrick Foy | Chris Iverson | Alexander Lewicki |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICES | → Same | → Same | → Same | ↑ Higher |
| LISTINGS | ↓ Fewer | ↓ Fewer | ↑ More | ↑ More |
| MULTIPLE OFFERS | ↑ More | → Same | ↑ More | ↑ More |
| TIME TO SELL | ↑ Faster | ↑ Faster | ↑ Faster | ↑ Faster |
| PRICE REDUCTIONS | ↓ Fewer | ↓ Fewer | ↑ More | ↓ Fewer |
| LUXURY MARKET | ↑ Stronger | → Same | ↓ Weaker | ↑ Stronger |
Q: What’s one thing you’re watching that will tell you whether your prediction is right?
“Oncoming inventory. Fewer homes coming on the market results in less selection (inventory), less selection creates panic. Panic results in Buyers competing for properties in the fear of they missed the Market. We are already seeing the beginning of fewer homes coming on the market than over the past few (Summer and Spring) months.”
– Tori Atwell
“The sales prices of the homes in comparison to prior market trends.”
– Brian Chancellor
The same things we pulled in the five-year look: sales volume, price, dollars per square foot, days on market, and sale price as a percentage of list price, from September through Thanksgiving. If those stay in the same band they have for years, the consistency call is right. And of course, talking to neighbors and listening.”
– Patrick Foy
“The luxury market ($20-million plus) is relatively few homes and in pockets. If they keep selling as well as they have been, then I’m wrong. If we see a bunch of big estates come on the market in the next year and not find takers after a year or two, then I’m right.”
– Chris Iverson
“Representing buyers is my passion, so I’m always diving into the local data to make sure that my clients have a reliable and up-to-date pulse on the market. I am also paying very close attention to the upcoming Anthropic IPO, as that is set to create a huge wave of wealth in the Bay Area for years to come. Additionally, OpenAI’s new campus recently opened in Mountain View, and sources say that could be a hub for 700+ employees, creating immediate localized demand in Palo Alto and the surrounding cities.”
– Alexander Lewicki
“The correct answer is there really is no one thing. Generally though, all matters of the economy affect the buying impulse, so a positive move there will make a difference. Secretly, a rise in inventory, especially high quality, is the key. Demand remains in our area and with AI in the headlines and booming in our area, that demand is not apt to change any time soon. However, getting the Baby Boomers to leave their low-interest/paid-off homes with low property tax is more of a problem with capital gain and no advantage or opportunity elsewhere because of high prices and property taxes. That’s a problem that is not getting serious attention at the state or national levels …yet.”
– Elyse Barca
Real Estate Editor Linda Taaffe contributed to this story.
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