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Mountain View’s elementary and middle school campuses are quickly filling up and will reach full capacity by 2012, experts told the district’s board of trustees at a recent meeting.
Cheryl and Jamie King, a mother-daughter team of demographers, told board members that the Mountain View Whisman Elementary School District is facing higher enrollment now that more parents are keeping their children in Mountain View schools.
The Kings, giving a presentation of their study at a March 19 board meeting, said this change can be partially attributed to the district becoming more stable after the close of Slater Elementary School in 2006. More families staying in the Bay Area for high-tech jobs also helps to explain the increase in students remaining in the district.
But as schools retain more students each year, the district must plan for the future, especially since many schools already are starting to become overcrowded, the demographers said. The district currently has 4,460 students, and the study projects this number will jump to 4,903 by the 2012-13 school year. The district’s current capacity is 4,830 students.
“Things are tight, so they are going to get extremely tight,” Jamie King told trustees.
The study was commissioned last year after the district reached enrollment numbers not expected until 2011. The district has not had a demographic study conducted in 10 years, and administrators said they wanted an updated analysis as they plan for the future.
“We knew we had an issue because our numbers were three years ahead of the numbers in the last demographic study,” said Craig Goldman, the district’s chief financial officer.
A committee of administrators and an architect have been discussing a 10-year master plan for the district’s facilities, which could suggest expanding schools or taking back campuses the district leases out, Goldman said. The committee will bring its proposal to the board for approval in June.
According to the recent study, the district’s population is growing at a rate similar to the rest of the county, but the schools here are starting to retain more of their students, helping to explain the larger enrollment numbers.
“We are seeing an increase in the number of students who do not leave the district,” Goldman said.
Migration numbers
The demographers, who work for Jack Schreder & Associates, came up with their enrollment numbers in part by looking at “migration,” a term for “how many students stay in a district year to year,” Cheryl King said. Traditionally, Mountain View elementary and middle schools have a “negative migration,” meaning fewer students return each year.
If the district “has fewer second grade students than they did first grade students the prior year, this would indicate negative migration,” the study says.
Although this negative rate still exists, the demographers explained it is starting to stabilize now, three years after the district closed Slater. The schools experienced a rise in “negative migration” from 2002 to 2005. From 2004 to 2005, the district lost 202 students. In 2007-08 this number was down to 74 students.
The increase can also be attributed to more families moving to the Bay Area. Many left Silicon Valley following the dot-com bust, Goldman said, but people are once again coming back for high-tech jobs. Many of these families are choosing to enroll and keep their children in Mountain View schools.
“Even though the economy is in decline, we are in better shape than in other parts of California. There are not a lot of greener pastures out there,” he said.
He added, “It is our belief that the quality of our schools is why families are staying in our schools. I am sure there are other variables out there.”
After seeing a significant increase in students last year, trustees changed district boundaries and also moved a magnet program to a new campus, all in an effort to alleviate crowding.
The so-called Facilities/Master Plan Committee is now looking at ways to further address overcrowding, and will present its findings to the board in June. The committee is focusing on population trends in specific neighborhoods, and looking at which schools have received the biggest enrollment increase.
Besides its eight schools, the district owns four additional properties, including Slater, and Goldman said the committee could consider expanding current sites or “reoccupying campuses.”
“Expansion,” he said, “is the reason we hold onto property.”
Let’s open up a few satellite schools in commercial space. We can hire up some of those teachers who just got laid off with our new educational bailout/stimulus/earmark/budget/bank nationalization etc. funds.
Seriously, there are vast areas of commercial space which wouldn’t cost a whole lot to childproof and outfit with a handful of teachers, teachers’ aides, a principal, secretary and some office assistants. Why aren’t we taking advantage of excess unused capacity in commercial space?
I know! Lets close Therakauf School and give it to Symantec workers for a day care center!! They could call it the anit-virus school!
Why would you use higher cost commercial space when the district owns other properties?
The new demographic study isnt that different than the analysis done when Slater was on the chopping block (for those that actually READ the analysis back then). I dont believe that the district has been caught flat-footed on this, and will certainly be able to react in time.
Maybe they should never have closed Slater. Parents there are demographers but they still were able to figure out this would happen.
oops should read “parents there were not demographers”
For whatever reason the school board was not able to recognize or acknowledge reality when we showed it to them before they closed Slater. That is why we took our kids out of the MV school system then, and I’ve not seen anything that shows the board has improved since then.
We’re in the process of trying to decide public or private for our kids. The district doesn’t seem to have a lot of credibility right now. The state has even less. What to do…
Dear Frances,
Don’t make your decision based on all the negative press. Don’t believe everything you read in the VOICE. It clearly is one-sided. My children went through the entire Mountain View School system and they were very prepared to be thoughtful, kind and productive citizens. I have nothing but high regard for the Mountain View School system. No school or school district is perfect, but this district works hard to meet the needs of children.
Are you kidding “concerned parent” MVWSD has not met the needs of our children, cuts, closing schools 5 superintendints countless problems letting the pact do what ever it wants without accountability. Hiring teachers that clearly shouldnt be educating our children. Misuse of money. This district gets a big F.
Frances-
If you were to look at similar message boards for ANY school district, you’d see the same sort of unfounded vitriolic compliants. You get the same sort of snarky whispers at private schools, too. You get the same PROBLEMS at private schools, as well (sometimes worse–private schools often become the depository of last resort for really troubled kids, not to mention disconnected parents that feel that once they write a check, they can check out. I’m not saying this represents all private school families, but this element exists).
Make the best choice for your family based on facts, not anonymous complaining and whining on a message board. My kids are in the district, and they are thriving. Every school at which I have friends (which is most, but not all) has a great sense of community and connection. We personally are very happy with our choice to live in Mtn View and pass on the private school options that are available to us.
There would be no overcrowding at our schools if we enforced our immigration laws.
We have a huge advantage in that we can reduce unused capacity, solving consumer economics problems, while educating more kids, and building more windmills, and building more plug-in hybrid vehicles, and educating more M.D.s, and exporting more aid, all while giving 95% of the people a tax cut. We may need to simplify the tax code into a two-bracket system in order to be able to figure out where the cusp would go if the lower bracket was 0%, but that’s just math.
Why is it better to use open space held by the district than unused commercial space. Would unused residential space be even better?
reality is that immigration is the problem.i am a legal immigrant. my parents went through every process needed to migrate here.ILLEGAL immigrants just wants what everybody wants BUT you have to wait your turn like everybody else.would you cut in the food line because your hungrier than the other person whos been waiting all day?school on the other hand..when you close a school, where do you think the students are to go except to another school, right? and what do you get..OVERCROWDED CLASSROOMS!EVERYBODY always looks for something or someone else to blame..LOOK IN THE MIRROR EVERYBODY..take responsibility for your own actions..illegal immigration,closing of schools,teacher layoffs,bonuses for school administrations,etc…
During the Slater school closure meetings (that spanned several months, or was it years) the District was asked “What if your projections are wrong?”
No one answered this question that was asked at a public meeting.